New Frictions Essay | Salavat Abylkalikov | Stolen Future: How war and xenophobia are accelerating Russia’s demographic decline
Has Russia's demographic history gone into a doom cycle? Salavat Abylkalikov explores the significance of war, falling fertility rates and declining inward migration could bring Russia to a "point of no return"
Read Salavat Abylkalikov's essay here on our Frictions blog-journal. The essay is peer-reviewed and available open access. Salavat Abylkalikov Stolen Future: How war and xenophobia are accelerating Russia’s demographic decline
Abstract | War and inward migration being rendered less appealing are contributing to Russia’s growing demographic contraction. Three distinct factors are converging at a single point: a deteriorating migration balance, the smaller cohorts entering the labour market, and a fresh surge in male excess mortality. This article examines the specific mechanisms of depopulation and puts forward a “point of no return” hypothesis. It focuses particularly on how migration has shifted from being a compensatory factor to a source of risk against the backdrop of militarisation. The situation is further complicated by measurement difficulties, as official Russian statistics become increasingly incomplete and hard to compare.
A shorter version of this text is available in English on the IOS Ukraine Blog and in German on the IOS Ostblog.